According to the latest Mysteel statistics, as of August 13, 2026, the national social inventory of stainless steel across 89 warehouses reached 1.106 million tons, up 1.75% week-on-week, ending a multi-week streak of inventory draws. Cold-rolled inventory stood at 617,600 tons (+0.81%), while hot-rolled inventory reached 488,300 tons (+2.96%), with the hot-rolled segment showing more pronounced accumulation.

Regional Divergence Persists, Foshan Stands Alone in Draw

Regional performance shows widening divergence. Foshan's stainless steel inventory (new methodology) totaled 326,200 tons, down 0.88% week-on-week, with 200-series cold and hot-rolled products both declining by 4.59% — continuing the earlier draw momentum. Wuxi inventory rose marginally by 0.34%, driven primarily by concentrated deliveries of front-loaded inventory from northern producers, while downstream consumption has been digesting supply at a slower pace. Regional markets outside the core production hubs saw inventories surge 12.01%, with垒库across all series — 300-series agent prices have been cut, 200-series concentrated deliveries are backing up, and 400-series off-take remains slow.

The national inventory pivot from draw to accumulation is primarily attributed to concentrated deliveries in regional markets combined with persistently weak downstream demand. Foshan's localized draw has been insufficient to offset the broader accumulation trend.

Section Prices Firm but Trading Activity Lags

The Mysteel Monthly Report (August) notes that stainless steel section prices held a firm-to-strong trajectory throughout the month, yet market trading enthusiasm remained clearly subdued. Bar, wire, and structural steel products have maintained resilience on the cost-support front, but downstream buyers have consistently remained cautious.

Dainan market: Early-month price increases generated limited demand response, with buyers maintaining a purchase-on-need approach. Mid-month supply-demand standoff persisted; merchants offered limited concessions to drive transactions, yet large orders remained difficult to conclude, with the overall market stance remaining watchful and steady.

Wuxi market: Downstream resistance to higher-priced resources was pronounced, with "asking without buying" behavior widespread. Late-month volume was predominantly driven by existing customer rigid demand, and merchants faced significant difficulty securing new orders.

August 14 reference prices: Tsingshan 304 Angle Steel 40×40×4 Wuxi ¥15,000/ton (-100), 304 Channel Steel 10# ¥14,900/ton (-100), 316L Bright Bar Φ6-100 Foshan ¥30,500/ton (flat).

Mill Profit Deterioration Drives Bar Output Cut

Under the cost-driven pricing structure, mill margin pressure has continued to mount. According to Mysteel data, the national stainless steel mill profit rate stood at only 33.77% in August — the lowest level of the year — with over 60% of stainless steel producers operating at a loss. Deteriorating profitability is directly reflected in output figures.

Bars: In August, 18 domestic stainless steel mills produced a total of 180,000 tons of bars, down 0.99% month-on-month but up 28.21% year-on-year. 300-series bar output reached 150,100 tons (+2.60% MoM), near the highest recent levels; 200-series output dropped sharply by 65.52% month-on-month, with some special-alloy producers actively reducing production and cutting low-margin SKUs.

Wire: Total wire output reached 214,600 tons in August, up 2.78% month-on-month and 19.09% year-on-year. 300-series wire order books remained lackluster, with growth concentrated in 200-series and 400-series — 400-series benefitted from improved margins, with order intake improving and monthly output rising 17%.

Off-Season Standoff Intensifies, "Golden September" Holds Key

The current stainless steel section market is in a classic off-season standoff: raw materials including nickel and molybdenum continue to hold at elevated levels, providing strong cost support for finished products. However, terminal demand remains persistently soft, with high temperatures dragging downstream operating rates. Procurement is largely on a just-in-time, rigid-demand basis, while mills maintain firm pricing amid growing merchant pressure to liquidate inventory.

As the traditional "Golden September, Silver October" peak season approaches, whether downstream buyers will genuinely step up restocking activity will be the key variable determining the directional choice of September section prices. Industry consensus leans toward short-term range-bound consolidation; if demand recovery disappoints, further mill production cuts to rebalance supply-demand cannot be ruled out.