One of the most-watched variables in the stainless steel supply chain this August is the resumption pace of Delong's 300-series production lines. As a major private mill with significant 300-series capacity, Delong's recovery directly influences raw material procurement, profile product availability, and downstream bargaining dynamics. This article outlines the latest changes and the transmission path to the special-shaped profile market.

1. Resumption Background: A Three-Stage Path of Maintenance, Curtailment, and Gradual Recovery

Public information shows that Delong completed routine maintenance and phased output control on several 300-series lines from late July to early August, with an average maintenance cycle of about two weeks. From the second week of August, the lines gradually resumed production. By mid-to-late August, capacity is expected to recover to 70%–80% of pre-maintenance levels, and by early September, near-full capacity.

This pace aligns with the company's "flexible adjustment based on orders and inventory" production philosophy: during maintenance, the focus was on digesting in-plant inventory; once inventory dropped to lower levels, capacity utilization was gradually lifted to avoid concentrated market impact.

2. Capacity Output: Daily 300-Series Production Edges Up

According to third-party industry surveys, Delong's daily 300-series output has rebounded by approximately 15%–20% from the early-August maintenance low. In terms of product mix, the recovered capacity prioritizes 304 hot-rolled and cold-rolled substrate, alongside some 316L substrate.

This adjustment has two implications for the profile market: first, increased substrate supply will provide more stable raw material support for downstream pipe and profile processors; second, with capacity not yet fully recovered, some 304 specifications may remain tight on a stage-by-stage basis.

3. Transmission Path to the Profile Market

The capacity changes from the resumption will not immediately appear in profile prices, but rather transmit gradually along a four-tier chain: "substrate → pipes → profiles → end-user orders."

Tier 1 — Substrate: Increased Supply of 304 Hot-Rolled and Cold-Rolled Substrate. With Delong's substrate output rising, inventories of 304 hot-rolled narrow strip and cold-rolled substrate at Wuxi and Foshan—the two major markets—will be replenished. The tightness in some specifications seen in late July due to maintenance is expected to ease notably in mid-to-late August.

Tier 2 — Pipes: Recovery in 304 Decorative and Industrial Pipe Production. Profile pipe and decorative pipe manufacturers use 304 substrate as their main raw material. Once Delong's substrate supply stabilizes, pipe makers' operating rates and production scheduling enthusiasm will pick up, boosting procurement appetite for special-shaped wires, special-shaped strips, and other deep-processing materials.

Tier 3 — Profiles: Order Recovery at Special-Shaped Profile Processors. Special-shaped profile processors receive orders from pipe makers, decorative sheet makers, and custom-component manufacturers. The substrate-side easing from Delong's 300-series resumption typically transmits to the profile order side with a 1–2-month lag. By September–October, operating rates and scheduling at profile processors are expected to show clear recovery.

Tier 4 — End-User Orders: Seasonal Recovery in Construction, Decoration, and Home Furnishing. Q3–Q4 represents the traditional peak season for construction decoration and home furnishing. End-user order releases, combined with improved substrate supply, will further push the profile market into a phase of recovery from the demand side.

4. Price Implications: Stable in Short Term, Mildly Bullish in Medium Term

On balance, Delong's 300-series resumption impact on the profile market can be characterized as "stable in the short term, mildly stronger in the medium term."

Short term (mid-to-late August): Substrate supply recovery has not yet fully reflected in profile orders, and combined with ongoing tightness in some specifications, profile prices are expected to remain stable, with some 304 specifications potentially maintaining modest upward momentum.

Medium term (September–October): As the substrate → pipe → profile transmission chain connects, order recovery at processors will drive activity in profile trading, with prices expected to shift from "stable" to "mildly bullish."

A risk to watch: if end-user demand falls short of expectations, or mills resume faster than expected, there could be phase-by-phase supply loosening, limiting the rebound's magnitude.

5. Conclusion and Key Observation Points

Delong's 300-series resumption is a key variable for the stainless steel value chain in August–September. From a market participation perspective, we recommend watching the following three observation points:

1. Weekly Delong substrate release volumes, particularly the shipment pace of 304 hot-rolled narrow strip and cold-rolled substrate;

2. Week-on-week inventory changes for 304 substrate in Wuxi and Foshan—inventory inflection points are leading signals of market turning points;

3. Operating rates and scheduling data at downstream profile processors—September data will be key to verifying whether the transmission chain has connected.

In the short term, the substrate loosening from the resumption and the seasonal downstream recovery will resonate, and the profile market is likely to enter a phase of recovery in September. However, the magnitude of the rebound will still depend on the actual pace of end-user demand release.