Overview: In August, with nickel prices under sustained pressure and chromium ferroalloy spot quotes slightly retreating, major stainless steel mills have adopted phased output control in the profile sector. As cost-side support weakens and downstream procurement sentiment stays cautious, the stainless steel profile market is undergoing a new round of structural tug-of-war.

1. Raw Materials: Nickel Downtrend Kicks In, Chrome Alloy Follows

As of early August, LME nickel main contract fell to the $15,000–$16,000/mt range, down approximately 5% from late July. Domestic nickel pig iron spot prices tracked lower, with mainstream delivered prices at 950–980 CNY per nickel point. For chrome alloy, Inner Mongolia HC FeCr ex-works quotes stood at 7,800–8,100 CNY/50 base ton, retreating 50–100 CNY week-on-week. The overall raw material retreat has put downward cost pressure on profile quotations.

2. Steel Mill Dynamics: Selective Line Maintenance & Output Cuts; August List Prices Largely Stable

According to market sources, multiple major stainless steel producers implemented phased inspections or output reduction on profile lines in August, with average cutback around 10%–15%. The cuts are driven by two factors: proactively reducing inventory to avoid price erosion amid falling raw material prices, and insufficient downstream orders pushing finished goods inventory higher.

On pricing, Tsingshan's August profile list prices remained broadly stable: 304 bar (Wenzhou) quoted at 14,100–14,200 CNY/mt, 316L bar at 28,300–28,500 CNY/mt, largely unchanged from late July. Industry analysts see the mills' strategy as 『price stability through volume control,』 aiming to balance market expectations and avoid price panic.

3. Spot Market: Light Trading, Distributors Digesting Inventory

Driven by a 『buy on the rise, not on the fall』 sentiment, spot profile trading was generally subdued in early August. Distributors reported a drop in inquiry volume, with some specifications showing modest negotiation room. In East China, actual transaction prices for 304 angle steel and channel steel fell 50–100 CNY below quoted levels.

Industry players note the market is currently in a 『raw material decline vs. mill price support』 standoff, with near-term price direction still unclear. Close attention should be paid to actual nickel price moves and mill cut execution.

4. Outlook: September — A Key Observation Window

August's core narrative centers on a confirmed downtrend in raw materials confronting mill price support against downstream buying caution. Spot prices may see modest further softening due to inventory pressure, but the downside appears limited.

September is viewed as a critical observation window: if raw materials continue declining and mill cuts fall short of targets, spot prices may face further pressure; if cuts are well-executed and downstream demand releases, the market could gradually stabilize. Close monitoring of 51bxg profile channel daily quotes is recommended.